No. In the year since the Feasibility Study was released, the blue sky projections are already inaccurate. Specifically, the predicted tax rates were remarkably off base.

The Canajoharie and Fort Plain school district merger feasibility study, linked below and here, includes many numbers and projections, all designed to make the proposed school merger look as enticing as possible. But while the data presented can be an accurate statistical summary of what has happened in the past, there is no data that provides any accurate information on what will actually happen if the Canajoharie and Fort Plain school districts merge. Indeed, the only real information presented about the future is way off when compared to what actually happened in the last year.

On page 101, the Feasibility Study accurately states the 24-25 true value tax rates for the two districts as $15,27 for Canajoharie and $15.46 for Fort Plain. The study then projects that very little incentive aid would need to spent on equalizing the tax rates between the two districts since they are very close; leaving more incentive aid for other transitional costs. Fast forward one year. The 25-26 true value tax rates for the two districts are $14.38 for Canajoharie and $13.31 for Fort Plain, radically altering any projections based on the old tax rates.

Those kinds of tax rates changes are just one factor that renders any kind of tax rate projections meaningless. The OESJ merger provides an apt example. Their merger Feasibility Study (on page 33, Table 6.1) projected that, assuming 1/3 of incentive aid could be used to reduce taxes, the tax levy would go down from the 12-13 level of $4,724,561, only getting back to that rate with the 26-27 school year. That is not what happened. The OESJ tax levy increased nearly every year, and is at $5,560,668 in the 25-26 school year.

The projections in the Feasibility Study are unreliable at best. Blue sky dreams about lower taxes and improved student performance are not supported by research or by local experience.