Is Declining Enrollment a Valid Reason to Merge Schools?

Not in a logical world. Merging schools does nothing to halt enrollment declines. Smaller schools provide better educational opportunities. And regionally, there are many schools smaller than Canajoharie or Fort Plain.

The Canajoharie and Fort Plain school districts have produced a new Merger Information Sheet (1)(or misinformation?!) which summarizes their reasons for pursuing a school merger. One of those supposed reasons is declining enrollment. There are three fallacies in the shared enrollment information, two of which will be rebutted here. The third will be featured in a future post.

It is true that in recent years, enrollment has been declining. But the claim that declining enrollment provides a reason to merge runs into a logical absurdity. Population decline in upstate NY is a long term undisputed fact. Indeed, 90% of New York State schools, big and small, are experiencing enrollment declines (2). If enrollment decline is a reason to merge schools, then nearly every school in New York State should be in an endless cycle of successive mergers.

We have to ask the question: should all school districts with enrollment declines be pursuing an endless series of school mergers? Of course not! Previous (and future!) posts on this site, “Is Bigger Better” and “Is Bigger Better 2“, present research results showing that smaller schools, schools with lower enrollment, provide more impactful student opportunities and better student outcomes. So why are we pretending there is a reason to eschew small? It is absurd to treat smallness as a problem.

Finally, there is the fallacy behind the thinking that declining enrollment is a problem for Canajoharie and Fort Plain, What does “decline” mean? Or, to put it another way: how small is too small? (Sounds like a future post!) Fortunately, there is readily available regional information on that. The NYSPHSAA (2) lists the schools in each NYS school athletic section in enrollment order. Just in sections II, III and IV (east central NY), there are 80 schools smaller than Fort Plain and more than 100 smaller than Canajoharie. Again, it is ridiculous to suggest that there are more than 100 schools in east central NYS that are somehow too small, and must merge, when these schools are, every day, educating students that go on to be active community leaders, valued tradesmen and women, and trusted professionals.

Small schools with lower enrollment are not a problem. They are a gift to future students and to our communities. Enrollment decline does not in any way indicate that a school merger is a positive choice for our communities.

(1) Canajoharie & Fort Plain School Districts, Merger Information Sheet, February, 2026. https://cfpmergertruth.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/canajoharie-fort-plain-merger-onesheet__q_a.pdf

(2) Girardin, Ken, Missing Kids: NY Public School Enrollment Falls Again, The Empire Center for Public Policy, February, 2025. https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/missing-kids-ny-public-school-enrollment-falls-again/

(3)New York State Public High School Athletic Association, Public School Enrollment 2023-2024 All Students, 2024. https://cfpmergertruth.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/2025_2026_school_enrollment_number_final.pdf