Is the evidence presented by our two school districts’ concerning enrollment decline valid? In a word; no! While enrollment is declining in most NYS school districts, that decline is neither as large, nor as consequential, as the schools would have you think.

One of the many sayings popularized by Mark Twain goes like this: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.” This statement provides a particularly apt caution about the information our school districts are sharing concerning the proposed merger.

The school districts’ Merger Information Sheet (1) claims that both schools are experiencing a 35% enrollment decline since 2000; using the number of graduates in 2000 and 2025 to provide evidence for that claim. A previous post, “Is Declining Enrollment a Valid Reason to Merge Schools?” documents why an enrollment decline isn’t a valid reason to pursue a school merger. This post analyzes the statistics themselves. First, the math problem; it is true that, using the number of graduates in 2000 and 2025, rounding to the nearest whole number, it does appear that the enrollment decline over 25 years is 35% for both districts.

The problem, however, is with the choice of data used. Number of graduates is a particularly volatile number, entirely unsuited to a valid or robust statistical analysis. I have personal experience with that: I graduated from FPCS in 1980, part of a graduating class of 60. The thing is, that number was uncommonly low for Fort Plain at that time. Typical graduating classes were in the 70’s and 80’s. Using 60 as a typical enrollment number for Fort Plain in 1980 would be what statisticians call sampling error, and what regular people call b**ls**t.

A more robust, but still imperfect, statistical analysis could be done with actual school district enrollment data. This data is available from the Cornell Program on Applied Demographics (2); and from the NYS School District Report Cards, (3) Using data from these sources for the years 2000 and 2025, we can calculate Fort Plain’s 25-year enrollment decline as 33.5% and Canajoharie’s as 32.5%. But even total enrollment is still a volatile number. We can illustrate that by computing the decline from 2015 – 2025, Using those years, we get a 10-year enrollment decline of 15% in Fort Plain and 12% in Canajoharie. To mitigate that volatility, using 3-year averages of enrollment from 2000 – 2025 yields 31% in Fort Plain, and 32% in Canajoharie.

Mark Twain’s word for an exaggeration is a “stretcher.” Saying our school districts have experienced a 35% enrollment decline is a stretcher. Look out for other stretchers in the schools’ statistical information. Exaggerations in enrollment declines are particularly important because enrollment projections are an important variable in all future financial projections. More on that will come in future posts on the volatility of financial forecasts.