No. The long -range financial plans produced for the current merger study, for past merger studies, as well as other plans produced by our districts in the past, are wildly inaccurate. The information our school districts are sharing about future finances is no more accurate than predictions produced in the past.

An earlier post on this site: Does the Feasibility Study provide accurate projections for the future?, exposed several inaccuracies in our districts’ current Merger Feasibility Study. And the post from April 27, What happens when schools reject a proposed merger?, shows that those inaccuracies are absolutely typical. The financial horror stories that merger proponents preach never come true.

In this post we are sharing proof that long-term financial projections done by our own school districts are similarly inaccurate. On March 20, I worked with a collaborator to submit Freedom of Information Law requests to both districts. I requested copies of any long-range financial plans done between 2010 and 2025; as well as all year-end fund balance reports from those same years. Data from those reports is shared below. In every case available, school district long-range financial plans predict future financial disasters that never happen.

In 2011, Fort Plain School commissioned a long-term financial plan from Bernard P Donegan, Inc, (BPD). This projection used 2010 actual financial reports and the 2011 school budget to project income, expenses, and final fund balance for each year through 2016. The report predicted that the district would lose a cumulative $13,494,398 by 2016, predicting a negative -$10,242,828 fund balance in that year. In fact, the district did not lose any money, but added $1,207,465 to its fund balance, showing a year-end balance of $4,459,035 in 2016. Thus, the so-called financial projection was low by $14,701,863. Data comparing actual to projected fund balance for 2010 – 2016 is in the chart below. It is interesting to note that Dr. Rick Timbs, who the districts hired to do the current financial projection, worked with BPD in 2011.

Year end fund balance, projected and actual

Fort Plain again commissioned BPD for a projection in 2020. As in the previous case, actual 2019 reports and the 2020 budget provided the basis for the projections. In this more recent plan, the projection was that Fort Plain School would lose a cumulative $9,403,280, predicting a fund balance of negative -$4,129,506 in 2025. The actual 2025 fund balance was $14,597,172; meaning that this “projection” was low by $18,726,598. Data form this study is in the chart below.

Year end fund balance, projected and actual

So here is a brief history of future financial projections. All 32 school districts that rejected a merger 2010 – 2014 were fed financial projections that were entirely inaccurate. The projections made for past local merger proposals were completely wrong. The projections above were pessimistic by more than $14.7 million and $18,7 million.

Now let’s look at the suspect projections we are currently being fed. According to these projections, Fort Plain will lose over $6 million by 2031, and Canajoharie will lose more than $16 million. But wait! The past financial projections were pessimistic by more than that. If the current financial projection is as accurate as the past projections, then an un-merged Fort Plain will gain another $10 million in fund balance by 2031; and Canajoharie will remain stable with an $11 million plus fund balance.

There is no valid financial reason to merge schools. Our school districts’ future financial predictions have no credibility at all.